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Saturday, November 29, 2003
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Silicon Valley Expansion Cycle
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Silicon Valley is starting to party again.
Signs of growth, investment, spending and success in Silicon Valley are starting to pick up again, according to an article in the December 8, 2003 edition of Forbes magazine.
Workers are job-hopping, PR firm billings are increasing, banking business is up, venture money is flowing, and -- oh -- tech companies are throwing parties once again.
But unlike the late 1990's, this time around it is not likely to be a huge run-up. "It's not a bubble but more like a carbonated beverage with lots of little bubbles," says Jonathan Feiber of Mohr, Davidow Ventures.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Friday, November 28, 2003
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Microsoft says Linux No Good for Small Business
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At a recent conference in Australia, a Microsoft executive charged that Linux software does not address the needs of small business as well as Microsoft's products, due to the inherent lack of integration.
While addressing a small and mid-market solutions team at a conference on November 25, Microsoft small business sales VP Steve Guggenheimer stated:"People sometimes talk about Linux in the small business space, but you'll never get so many pieces together on one server with Linux. Obviously, to integrate so many pieces together on the same server will cost a lot of money and won't serve your business needs." He went on to say that with Microsoft, customers could buy a package of applications already integrated to perform necessary functions, but with Linux they would have to mix and match "three, four or even five" applications to do the same job.
Furthermore, customers buying multiple different applications to use on Linux would then probably have a lot of extra integration work to ensure that the applications worked together. By comparison, the Microsoft Small Business Server 2003 is an easy-to-use, already integrated package.
Guggenheimer later that day in an interview stated that small business people were business people rather than technical types, and the total cost of choosing Linux was for them likely to be high.
While all the Linux and "open source" devotees out there will disagree, the words of the Microsoft executive ring true for the small business market. The fact remains that most small businesses expect their information technology to work for them quickly and seamlessly.
Outside of businesses in the IT industry, most small businesses do not have the time, money or expertise to integrate multiple applications that are pieced together from various sources and make them "talk" to one another. Small businesses want software that is simple to install and run, and that integrates easily with other software packages.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Thursday, November 27, 2003
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Internet Plays Key Role in Real Estate Industry
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The Internet increasingly plays a key role in the real estate sales industry, and this trend is expected to grow.
According to a recent article by real estate professional John Mudd, more and more homebuyers are using the Internet in some portion of their buying process, either to locate property for sale or to educate themselves.
By the same token, real estate professionals are leveraging the Internet to locate and educate potential buyers.
He writes on Blogcritics.org:
...Internet homebuyers are quickly becoming the majority of homebuyers.
Most Internet homebuyers still work with a Realtor, and they do rely on their services and expertise when it comes to area information, property information and closing services, plus relocation services, but they also seek quite a bit of information on their own, whether or not they're working with a Realtor.
***According to the "Internet Versus Traditional Buyers Survey," traditional homebuyers decreased from 72 to 55 percent from 2000 to 2003, while Internet homebuyers increased from 28 to 45 percent, and still appears to be growing.
What does this mean for the real estate industry as a whole?
Well, it means that instead of cold calling to get listings, real estate professionals of the future are going to get most of their business from Google positioning and other electronic communications, other than SPAM, which is likely to become more regulated in the near future. Smart real estate professionals, brokerages and other small and midsize businesses in the real estate industry will try to understand this trend and take advantage of it.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Friday, November 21, 2003
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The Hottest Businesses for 2004 -- Part #2
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The following is Part #2 of the list of the hottest new U. S. business opportunities for 2004, as contained in Entrepreneur Magazine. Part #1 of the Entrepreneur list was published yesterday (see the post prior to this one):
Online Matchmaking -- Americans are willing to pay for connections, social or professional. The online dating industry is forecasted at $1.14 Billion (US) in 2003. However, plain vanilla online dating sites are no longer enough. Finding a fresh niche is key. Sites like Friendster.com, linking together friends (who may or may not date) and sites like EntreMate.com, which connect up business partners, are seeing some of the hottest growth. Children's Enrichment Programs -- Call it kids' extracurricular activities...on steroids. Offering activities and lessons to children is now a billion-dollar industry. Dance, martial arts, foreign languages, organized sports and chess are just some of the programs available, and all adding up to opportunity. Organic Foods -- Consumers are turning to organic foods in greater numbers than ever before. Grocers are clearing space on their shelves for organics. "If you want to go organic, creativity is key. Are you addressing an unmet need, are you bringing something new to the category, or are you just another substitute for what [stores are] already carrying?" Home Automation -- Formerly just for the wealthy, there is now a market for home automation among ordinary homeowners. Home security systems, home entertainment, lighting and window coverings are the main services. The big name electronics manufacturers dominate the manufacture of home automation systems. The entrepreneurial opportunity is in installing and maintaining the systems. Specialty Exercise Aftermarket -- Yoga, Pilates, meditation. They offer huge market potential. "Yoga-inspired foods, gear aimed at men, instructors who work inside schools and large corporations, and franchising are just a few largely untapped markets." Home Improvement -- According to the National Association of the Remodeling Industry (NARI), Americans spent $163 Billion (US) on remodeling in 2002. (Yes, that's right, Billion with a B.) In such a large industry, there are plenty of opportunities in niche areas including: contracting, interior design, interior arranging (designing new spaces with items a client already owns), making homes more accessible to seniors, and environmentally-sound remodeling. Women's Fitness Centers -- Women's fitness is a booming trend. Opportunities include exercise spas, nutrition, personal training, workout reminders, progress tracking, clothing and equipment. eBay -- eBay, the most profitable of the eCommerce behemoths. Need we say more? Hot sales areas of eBay include home and garden, clothing and accessories, vehicles and parts, and consumer electronics. Medical Supply -- With "the number of seniors expected to grow to 70 million by 2030, according to the U.S. Administration on Aging, the medical supplies and equipment industry will continue to grow." The home health care segment in particular is growing steadily.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Thursday, November 20, 2003
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The Hottest Businesses for 2004 -- Part #1
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Entrepreneur Magazine has issued a list of the hottest new U. S. business opportunities for 2004. Because the list is so lengthy (18 entries), we will use two separate posts to cover the opportunities.
Part #1 of the Entrepreneur list includes:
Online Learning -- a $6.6 Billion (US) industry expected to grow to $23.7 Billion (US) by 2006, according to research firm IDC. The hottest segment of this industry? Blended learning...which simply means online learning combined at times with instructor training, video training and other methods. Mobile Gaming -- No, we're not talking about playing blackjack while riding in a limo. Mobile gaming means playing games using a mobile phone. "Eighty percent of all mobile phone users in the United States and Europe will play online games using wireless devices by 2005, according to technology research firm Datamonitor. That's more than 200 million people. Creating and distributing games is where the opportunity is in this fledgling market." VoIP -- "Homes and businesses around the world are leaving their regular phone service behind to make their calls for a fraction of the price over the Net. *** While large enterprises will likely be slow to adopt VoIP, consumers and small business will be on the forefront." Tech Security -- Security is a fast growing area of technology. "One of the biggest computer stories of the past few years is the rise of technology security. It's a wide-open area that encompasses everything from biometric thumbprint scanners to VPNs to consulting to firewalls to virus protection and beyond." Spas -- One in 5 Americans visited a spa in the past year. As the spa business grows, it is diversifying into specific niches. Some spas target certain age groups, or males or females only. Spas can be medical oriented or family oriented. And the niche focus will continue as the industry grows and develops. Upscale Pet Services -- Americans love their pets. So much so, that they will spend $31 Billion (US) on their pets in 2003. Luxury services for pets - such as day cruises and pet spas - are a growth industry. Wireless -- "While on the surface the wireless arena appears to be dominated by jumbo-size enterprises, a lot of the innovation and nuts-and-bolts work is provided by growing businesses and start-ups." Wireless hot spots is an area getting a lot of attention right now. But other areas that are promising are: prepaid wireless services, location-based technologies like e911, and wireless home networking. Outsourcing -- We hear so much about the threat of offshore outsourcing, that we can forget how much opportunity is to be had in outsourcing. Among these opportunities: there is room for smaller enterprises that help companies figure out what to outsource and how to manage their off-shore projects. Senior Care -- As the population ages, products and services for seniors are a hot area, as are services to help children caring for aging parents. Personal fitness trainers for seniors, in-home care, senior day-care, personalized moving services -- the list goes on.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Sunday, November 16, 2003
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The Market Wasn't Ready
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I received an email about my November 14th post about micropayments. The message suggested that I'd really blown it back in 1999 by not jumping on the micropayments business then.
I beg to differ. (Actually, I'm not really begging -- I AM differing.)
Ever heard the phrase "the market wasn't ready for it"? Sometimes a new offering is simply way ahead of its time. It may be a great idea, but unless there is sufficient market demand, it won't get off the ground as a business.
That's what happened with micropayments the first time around during the dot-com boomdays. There just wasn't enough demand or need for micropayment services to purchase content. How could there be, when everyone expected Internet content to be free back then, and few were willing to pay? Without the market need, the services never took off.
Indeed, they still may fizzle. Micropayments are barely beyond the experimental stage, even in late 2003. The two services in my post, Peppercoin and Bitpass, appear to be in beta test. And the numbers of micropayment transactions that I cited are truly small numbers. Only time will tell.
But if I were to bet, I would bet in favor of micropayments taking off. Why? In part because of the MAJOR shift toward paid download services for music. Nothing against you comics lovers, but selling comics is not enough to make a business out of micropayments. For micropayments to take off, they have to be driven by sufficient financial incentive.
Low-priced downloads of music just may be that incentive. For an example of the relationship between music downloads and micropayments, see the press release announcing that American Empire Records plans to launch the new single by Sanity online at a price of 99 cents (US) using the Paystone micropayments solution.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Saturday, November 15, 2003
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It Pays to Target Your Marketing to SMBs
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It turns out that small- and mid-sized businesses are loyal to brands with which they've had a good experience. This comes from a study commissioned by City Business Journals Network and administered by Kadence Business Research.
The study showed that 87 percent of both small- and mid-sized business owners develop a long term relationship with suppliers once they've had a positive experience with them. And, small and mid-sized businesses form lasting relationships in particular with those that tailor marketing programs toward their businesses.
The top brands among small businesses are: UPS, Kinko's, Intel, FedEx and Dell.
Among mid-sized businesses the top brands are: FedEx, UPS, Cisco Systems, American Express and Southwest Airlines.
"These brands do an excellent job of keeping their fingers on the pulse of small- and mid-sized business needs," says Ed Baker, publisher of Atlanta Business Chronicle and chief marketing officer for the City Business Journals Network.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Friday, November 14, 2003
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Micropayments an Up-and-Coming Trend
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Keep your eye on micropayments. They're a growing trend in eCommerce.
Micropayments are small payments made for online purchases valued at $2 (US) or less. These small payments are charged for items such as mobile phone ringtones, digital music, games, recipes, comics and stickers. Mostly they're for impulse purchases, and often -- but not always -- made by teenagers.
For really small payments, merchants can't realistically accept credit cards. The processing fees tend to gobble up any profit margin. Furthermore, teenagers making these small purchases often don't have credit cards. Hence, the need for new methods of transmitting small payments.
The concept of micropayments has been around for at least five years. When I was in charge of eCommerce for a NYSE company back in 1999, an employee brought me a business plan seeking to develop a new business centered around micropayments. Micropayments did not fit in with the company's strategic direction, and so we declined to move forward with it. But at the time I thought the concept held promise and believed that eventually some company somewhere would make a go of it. And it is beginning to look that way -- only five years later.
What's spurring on micropayments is the rise in digital content sales, especially music downloads. "The music industry has recently forged new ground and proven the viability of the micropayments model. Now it is up to other online merchants to find new ways to package their existing content and to develop new, innovative content to grow this market," said Robert Kiburz, president and CEO of Peppercoin, a micropayments provider.
According to a survey performed by Ipsos for Peppercoin, more than 4 million Americans purchased digital content for less than $2 in the past year. Now, in overall numbers, that's a drop in the bucket compared to the billions spent online for all purchases. But the demand for micropayments is sure to grow as digital music sales grow. With music sites like iTunes charging 99 cents (US) for a tune, and Rhapsody charging as little as 79 cents (US), retailers have to save every penny they can on credit card fees.
Another micropayment provider is Bitpass. The Bitpass site even includes a list of merchants who accept Bitpass micropayments. There you can find places to spend your shekels on things like: Geeks in Love comics, iStockphoto.com photographs, and even Guy Kawasaki's speeches.
Micropayments could open up new opportunities for smaller merchants to sell small items of content at a profit. Look for more from us on this subject as this trend develops.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Wednesday, November 12, 2003
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Music Download Services Hot
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Even as you read this online journal, we are undergoing a major shift in the U.S. music industry. The industry appears to be successfully moving toward a new model--one of distributing music over the Internet via for-fee download services like iTunes.
The new legal download services are becoming one of the hottest new media market opportunities.
Two important signs point this way:
First, it looks like the U.S. music companies are wising up--finally. They are catching on to the fact that distributing music via Internet download is a better strategy than crashing dorm rooms and hauling sophomores into court. They are beginning to cooperate with businesses that want to distribute music electronically, working out reasonable licensing deals that allow the online businesses to keep fees low for consumers, yet still be profitable. Moreover, just this week Penn State University announced a deal with Napster to enable students to legally download music--the first such deal with a university.
Second, the download sites seem to be catching on with U.S. consumers. The sites are showing promising sales numbers. A week ago Apple reported that its iTunes music site sold 1,500,000 songs in a one week period. Add to that the 300,000 songs that Napster sold during its first week after re-opening as a for-fee download site. Then you have other paid-download sites, like RealNetwork's Rhapsody, where songs are just 79 cents (US) and you can even sign up for a free 14-day trial. BestBuy, which markets the Rhapsody service, has also started to market another download service, from FullAudio. Sales of 1,800,000+ songs in one week is enough to make a dent in the 30 Million customers each month frequenting the offshore "free" filesharing sites, such as KaZaa, Grokster and Morpheus. These are early days, and the new for-fee download services haven't hit their strides yet, so expect their sales numbers to keep growing.
(In Europe, on the other hand, the legitimate download sites have yet to catch on. In large part this is due to the inability of those sites to negotiate licensing arrangements at price points low enough to allow them to offer consumers the songs at reasonable fees. See the Wall Street Journal article if you are a subscriber.)
What does the shift to paid download sites mean for smaller artists and smaller record labels? Ultimately this will be a positive step. According to McKinsey & Co., music artists and record companies ultimately should be OK: "Despite the frazzled state of the music moguls, history is on the side of content creators and owners. Each new format and market for media products, from the phonograph to the Walkman to the VCR to the DVD, has resulted in the creation of increasing value for intellectual property." Expect the new download sites to level the playing field, especially for artists not represented by the five major music labels. Smaller artists who couldn't reach consumers because they didn't have the large labels behind them to pay for marketing just may have greater access to consumers than ever before.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Tuesday, November 11, 2003
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Microsoft's 2003 Outlook Program Gets Mixed Reviews
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Reports are mixed about the newly released Microsoft Office Small Business Edition 2003. Not that anyone's saying it's bad, mind you. Just that there may not be much reason for small businesses to upgrade to the new version.
Walter Mossberg in the Wall Street Journal says it is "pretty much a yawner" for small businesses.
C-Net gives it a middle-of-the-road review. Acknowledging that the new version of Outlook does a better job filtering spam and organizing email messages, C-Net nonetheless identifies "few changes ... for small-business users."
However, at least one reviewer gives the Outlook portion of Office high marks, going so far as to say it will become an essential tool for small business.
According to Steve Strauss in USA Today, Outlook's new Business Contact Manager feature is the gem in the Office 2003 suite, Small Business Edition. It allows a small businessperson to manage existing customers and contacts, as well as prospects. It solves "real-life small business problems and scenarios" and gives small businesses the power to manage their businesses much as larger businesses do, especially when it comes to customer contacts and sales prospect activity.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Monday, November 10, 2003
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Intellectual Property More Valuable to Business
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A major trend affecting business is the trend toward the "intellectualization" of property. Simply put, the majority of a business's assets used to be tangible (real estate, equipment). But over the past 25 years that has all changed. Now the majority of a business's value is in intangible property (know-how, patents, systems, "goodwill").
This trend is enormously significant and affects businesses of all sizes--small, medium, large, and jumbo.
In fact, it is at the heart of why manufacturing jobs are declining worldwide and will continue to decline. Why? Because as more of a manufacturing company's critical differentiating value resides in its intellectual property (sometimes referred to in shorthand as "technology"), the company becomes more efficient and productive. In short, it can produce more, with fewer people.
The most recent edition of the Small Business Advocate newsletter made this very point:
"Here are three examples of how the marketplace has been affected by the journey of intellectual property.
1. In a report by Kenneth Crosin, titled, "Management of IP Assets," he states that in 1978, 80% of a corporation's assets were tangible, such as buildings, equipment, etc., while the rest was in the form of intangible intellectual assets, like patents, systems, and documentation. But as cogs have given way to computers, and motors have been replaced by megabytes, Crosin reports that by 1997, the relative value of tangible and intangible assets had essentially reversed, with 73% of corporate assets being in the form of intellectual property.
How does this shift manifest in the marketplace? In two ways: increases in productivity, and a redefining of how we work and do business.
2. During a recent speech by the plant manager of a green field paper plant, he was asked how many of his employees used technology in the direct performance of their jobs. Answer: 100%. When he was asked how many employees he needed for his new plant, his answer was, half as many as the new plant he had managed 10 years previously. The difference? Technology.
3. This manager's experience matches up with the results of a 2003 Alliance Capital Management, LP report, which indicated that in the 20 largest world economies, from 1995 to 2002, manufacturing jobs declined by more than 22 million, or 11%. And here's some news: America wasn't the biggest loser.
Even though it's true that China is the recipient of the migration of many of the world's manufacturing jobs, even this capitalism rookie saw a 15% decline in its manufacturing sector. The reason? Increased productivity due to technology - even in China."
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Friday, November 07, 2003
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Motorcycle Industry Offers Opportunity for Smaller Enterprises
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The global motorcycle industry grew 7.1% during 2002, and is expected to grow over 40% by 2007. This market continues to present a promising environment for smaller enterprises and entrepreneurs. Aside from the major bike manufacturers, the market supports a myriad of small and midsize players, including motorcycle dealers, manufacturers/retailers of aftermarket add-ons, custom builders who create small numbers of highly individualized bikes, apparel manufacturers/retailers--the list goes on.
The largest motorcycle market in the world is China, with sales of over 12 million vehicles in 2002. In China, motorcycles are used for transportation. China has been a profitable market for the major motorcycle manufacturers - chiefly Japanese firms such as Honda, Kawasaki and Yamaha. However, smaller, locally owned producers are taking an increasing share of the market with knock-offs of Japanese designed motorcycles.
In the West, especially the United States, motorcycles are primarily leisure items. Toys. Nobody buys a Harley because they need transportation--it's all about lifestyle in the United States. The most successful motorcycle and powersports dealerships in the United States create an experience for consumers. They know they are selling dreams, not transportation. And, of course, there is a booming market for aftermarket add-ons to customize motorcycles so the owners can make personalized statements about who they are, riding their cool bikes.
Automotive Business Review offers more motorcycle industry stats (report fee required).
A prime example of an entrepreneur in this industry is my friend and colleague Lee Parks, who has written a book on motorcycle racing, Total Control and designed his own line of great racing gloves.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Tuesday, November 04, 2003
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It's Baaack! Napster
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Rumors of its death were greatly exaggerated. Napster last week arose out of the ashes of bankruptcy, and was re-launched as a fee-based service. In just one day it once again became one of the most trafficked sites for downloading music files, behind only Kazaa and MP3.
Napster has a new corporate owner, Roxio, Inc. (NASDAQ: ROXI), a provider of digital media software. Once an outlaw and the icon for bucking the major music labels, Napster now has gone legit. According to the Napster site: "Napster has extensive content agreements with the five major record labels, as well as hundreds of independents. Napster delivers access to the largest catalog of online music, with more than 500,000 tracks spanning all genres from Eminem to Miles Davis."
This suggests a new era of music download sites may be dawning. Perhaps it is true--people just might pay to download music if the fees are reasonable and the selection broad. We'll write more about this phenomena, especially the impact on smaller artists and smaller record labels, as trends develop.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Sunday, November 02, 2003
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Weekly SMB Market Roundup
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The week ending October 31, 2003 saw fewer high-tech product and service introductions targeted toward SMBs than the previous week. Yet there was still a push to capture SMB market dollars in the United States, Europe and Asia. Some of the highlights:
- BellSouth introduces a packaged communications solution that includes a migration path to voiceover Internet protocol (VoIP). The number-three local phone company (behind Verizon and SBC Communications) is targeting small and midsize business (SMB) customers with as few as 12 users. More. - IBM launches its latest packages of software and services for small and medium-sized businesses, including a bundle for suppliers looking to synchronize product information with retailers through the UCCnet registry. IBM's Express portfolio bundles, which total more than 40, target businesses with between 100 and 1,000 employees. According to a Gartner spokesperson, "IBM's experience in the SMB market...is another strength....They have worked through some of the challenges of reducing cost and offering solutions with a value proposition attractive to small and midsize enterprises, which is very different than large enterprises." More. - While this next one isn't exactly a case of big business chasing small business, it is still worth noting: Linux followed up Microsoft's launch last week of its Office 2003 with its own series of new launches. Red Hat releases Enterprise Linux 3, which improves its performance when running apps with multiple threads operating at once. SuSE releases a new 64-bit operating system for PCs, and a new version of its Openexchange server with enhanced support for Outlook 2003. More. - Panda Software launches BusinesSecure, which includes a new antivirus solution providing protection specifically targeting networks of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). More. - VIA NET.WORKS, a provider of business communication solutions to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe and the United States, launches Internet Protocol-based Virtual Private Network (IP VPN) solutions designed to meet the networking needs of SMEs across Europe. More.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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Saturday, November 01, 2003
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Social-Networking Web Sites Hot
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The hottest thing in Internet start-ups these days is social-networking Web sites. Sites like Friendster.com, Ryze.com, Emode.com and Meetup.com are seeing rapid growth.
So rapid, that some venture capitalists are likening the phenomena to last century's Internet run-up, with comments like "Does it feel like 1999 again?" Translation: some VCs are jumping on board and investing with the same kind of abandon they had for now-defunct sites like Pets.com. Others are steering clear, dubbing the environment as "bubblesque."
Many of the sites are based on free services designed to get individuals to network with one another. One person signs up, and then gets others to sign up, who bring in others, etc. It's viral marketing at its best.
There's no doubt that the sites are very popular right now, especially with young professionals. Whether a sustainable business model can be built is another issue. According to a spokesperson with Forrester Research:
"The social networks are great as long as they are small." But "in order to have a business model, that requires scale, typically. Those two things are inherently in contradiction. It's a fundamental challenge." Read more if you are a Wall Street Journal subscriber.
The unfortunate truth is that most of these sites will not survive in their current forms. There are plenty of businesses making money on the Internet. But Web sites based primarily on providing FREE services typically don't have long-lived business models. They are going to have to adapt--very quickly--into cash-generating machines that bring in more than they spend if they expect to survive and thrive. Hopefully that's the lesson we learned from the last Internet bubble.
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By Anita Campbell | Permalink |
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More news... more trends... more insight... |
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